GLOBAL WARMING VII: THEY BURIED THE LEAD
The full report from those GW people from the beginning of the month won’t be available to us mortals for a few more months. But go here (PDF) (their “Summary for Policymakers” – think of it as ‘Global Warming for Dummies’!!) and scroll down to page 17, their ‘estimates of projected future climate change.’ This is where they explain why we’re in this for the very long haul – what I didn’t know is, it’s for A THOUSAND YEARS OR MORE!!!!:
“Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere.”
The MSM I heard ‘only’ said “several centuries”!!! Call me Pollyanna, but I want to start counting from their watershed year of 1750, so we’re looking at AD 2750, or hopefully not many more centuries after that. (Just in time to get ourselves bombed back to the Stone Age – or worse – by an asteroid!) Anyway, at least what we might be able to do, someone said, is influence how much warming and sea rise: It can be bad, or it can be less bad. I vote for less bad!
“If radiative forcing were to be stabilized in 2100 at A1B levels, thermal expansion alone would lead to 0.3 to 0.8 m of sea level rise by 2300 (relative to 1980–1999). Thermal expansion would continue for many centuries, due to the time required to transport heat into the deep ocean.”
What that means is, 3 feet or more of sea rise in the next 200 years even if we halt temperature rise by the end of this century, and still more all the way till the 29th century or later because big, warmed fluids keep expanding, even if the icecaps stop melting and adding water to the oceans that way.
But we probably won’t be so lucky:
“The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when paleoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4 to 6 m of sea level rise.”
For those of you keeping score at home, that’s >3 feet increase from thermal expansion of seawater, plus 18 feet from melting Greenland and other Arctic lands, and late word that we can expect some melt from Antarctica too. Here’s what the world will look like under 30 feet of water: Say goodbye to Derry City and coastal County Derry, Belfast, much of South Down, County Louth, Dublin, Wicklow City, Wexford, much of West Waterford and East Cork, Cork City, Tralee, Limerick City, Shannon, and much of Conamara, Ireland; Bristol, Portsmouth, the heart of London and the Thames Estuary, Canterbury, and much of east-central England; the heart of Glasgow and towns along the Firth of Forth in Scotland; much of Holland and Belgium and coastal Germany and NW France and Denmark, Stockholm, much of Kaliningrad and Gdansk, NE Italy, Cadiz, coastal Albania, Thessaloniki, the Nile Delta, the north Black Sea coast, the Marsh Arabs, the Persian Gulf coast, NW India/SE Pakistan, Mumbai, the Bay of Bengal coastline (including Bangladesh), Calcutta, Bangkok, southern areas of Vietnam and Cambodia, coastal areas of the East Indies, coastal Australia, Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, coastal Taiwan and NE China, Honolulu, many of the world’s Islands(!), Bethel and the Yukon Delta in Alaska, much of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley and Seattle, the Lower Columbia from Portland to the Pacific; Eureka, California; much of the Bay Area, Silicon Valley, and the Central Valley of California; Salinas, Oxnard, Los Angeles Harbor, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, the waterfront of San Diego, and the Imperial Valley, Calif.; the Gulf of Mexico coast, much of south Florida, most of the eastern coastline of the U.S. and Canada, The Bahamas, coastal Cuba and Haiti and the Dominican Republic, much of coastal Latin America, Buenos Aires, the Lower Amazon from Manaus to the Delta and the Atlantic; and coastal West Africa and Mozambique.
And these guys aren’t even factoring-in the release of gases from all that thawing permafrost!