He said it, I didn’t. (Not since October anyway.) The analyst in the video accompanying this page 1 WSJ article (link will probably break) wondered if the Oil Market is already factoring-in Peak Oil as part of its skyrocketing prices (being passed along to us in everything from the gas pump to the fresh food section, ie, widespread inflation with no end in sight!). Farther down, the Journal itself says P.O. theory is spreading among industry executives, who I imagine don’t tend to put much trust in miracles like the PO-denial crowd does. WSJ also points out that in November the International Energy Agency (not to be confused with the Intl Atomic Energy Agency) – in a story I don’t remember hearing about! – forecast that by 2015 – 7 years from *now* – the world could fall 12 million barrels a day short of demand. “By” means BEFORE!!!
What could be worse? Well, according to the Journal, the IEA tends to be optimistic, driven by politics vs. science (kind of like the Global Warming committee, the Intl Panel on Climate Change!), which means if they predict bad news, it’s gonna be WORSE!!! (They missed China, and the current spikes.)
Even worse? They say even the oil-owned U.S. government’s own forecaster is also pessimistic if you read between the lines! (Though I note the Journal wants us to believe there’s “political turmoil in Venezuela,” probably anticipating a U.S. invasion. They also strove mightily to end on a positive note, as I said, trusting in miracles. As an Orthodox Christian, I believe in miracles. I just don’t think you can plan on or expect them, like Western Chrstians do!)
Worse yet? ABC World News Tonight picked up the story. Look out world!
One thing PO theorists don’t seem to factor-in is noted in the ABC AP version of the story, quoting a source:
Up to now, we have seen that the international oil companies were responsible for bringing a big chunk of the oil to the markets. Now, in many cases, since existing reserves are declining, a big part of oil will need to come from national oil companies. And they have their own conditions, their own context.
They don’t say why this should be, but I believe it’s because governments that own oil companies aren’t about to go off the “Olduvai Cliff” – or let their high-paying customers do so – if they can help it. Governments will invest taxes both in energy companies they own and in those they charter or regulate (ie, subsidize those that own them!) in an attempt to keep up and increase production beyond what is “profitable,” the immediate driver of the PO cliff. The thing is, we’ll all pay for it one way or another, and the politics of it will be increasingly rough. As for poorer countries without energy resources, they’ll slide downward sooner and/or faster, with even worse consequences, without international help – which will cost everyone else even more.
What are we ready for? What can we get ready for?
A new reason for economic growth? Is that even possible without oil (and natural gas)??? As they say, we don’t know of a natural source of energy more potent than oil/gas. Coal is up there, but even more controversial. That’s it for hydrocarbons! Nuclear, with all its dangers inherent (accidents, waste, etc.) and external (terrorism)? Plus how long does it take to propose and bring a new reactor online – 20 years??? – and more controversial yet!